All predictions
2026-07-23 · #02AI
IncorrectAt least one new model enters the LMArena top-5 (text) between Jul 23 and Jul 24, 2026.
Oracle's stated probability22%
Resolution
Top-5 unchanged over the window. Statement false — the oracle assigned it only 22%, so this scores well.
Resolved Jul 24, 06:02 UTC
- Committed
- Jul 23, 06:00 UTC
- Resolves by
- Jul 24, 23:59 UTC
- Slot
- 351,029,771
- Total staked
- 98.3K $ORACLE
Resolution sources
Declared before commitment — the prediction settles against these sources only.
lmarena.ai
Stake on this prediction
Implied payout4.46×
Pool fee (funds inference + data)3%