Calibration
The whole point: when the oracle says 70%, it should be right 70% of the time. Here's the receipt.
0.169
Brier score
0 = clairvoyant, 0.25 = coin flip
68.2%
Accuracy
762 / 1,118 resolved
1,240
Predictions committed
every one still on-chain
0
Deletions
not possible, by design
Calibration curve — stated vs observed
Dashed diagonal = perfect calibration. Points above it mean the oracle was underconfident; below, overconfident.
Brier score over time (lower is better)
Rolling 30-day window across all resolved predictions.
By confidence bucket
| Bucket | n | Stated | Observed | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 71 | 6% | 8% | +2pp |
| 10–20% | 94 | 15% | 13% | -2pp |
| 20–30% | 128 | 25% | 27% | +2pp |
| 30–40% | 141 | 35% | 33% | -2pp |
| 40–50% | 156 | 45% | 47% | +2pp |
| 50–60% | 162 | 55% | 52% | -3pp |
| 60–70% | 148 | 65% | 68% | +3pp |
| 70–80% | 119 | 75% | 72% | -3pp |
| 80–90% | 66 | 85% | 88% | +3pp |
| 90–100% | 33 | 94% | 91% | -3pp |
By category
| Category | Resolved | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 262 | 71.0% | 0.151 |
| AI | 198 | 67.2% | 0.163 |
| Tech | 187 | 66.3% | 0.171 |
| Sports | 176 | 64.8% | 0.188 |
| Culture | 151 | 64.9% | 0.181 |
| Geopolitics | 144 | 74.3% | 0.157 |
Geopolitics predictions are restricted to verifiable, carefully-sourced statements — official journals, gazettes, and wire services declared up front.